Oper8 · Bid / no-bid on data
US public-sector bid firm — choosing which bids to chase from its own track record
Relevant if
Every proposal is unpaid work, and the decision to bid rests on a conversation rather than on how the firm has done with that client before.
Brief
A US firm of about 50 people wins all its work through public-sector bids. A standard proposal takes about 40 hours, roughly $4,000 of staff time, and the firm submits around 93 a quarter. On a $30,000 task order, one lost bid can wipe out the profit of a won one. Bid / no-bid was a judgement call made by three to five people. The firm had recorded who beat it on just 13 of 1,404 lost bids.
What we did — the four Oper8 moves
- 01
Choose a process
We chose the bid / no-bid decision and started with subcontract bids, about 75% of the firm’s volume. In a workshop with the team we designed the process first and added AI second, so the agents would not speed up a broken process.
- 02
Assess the economics
We priced the outcome: what a won contract costs once the lost bids are counted. The discovery estimate: dropping half of the small, loss-making bids frees about $240,000 a year of staff time for larger bids.
- 03
Test a pilot
We built a Knowledge Base of the firm’s whole bid history: some 3,400 bids with outcomes, 575 delivered projects with fees, 535 partners and competitors, 215 client agencies. Quality was checked before launch: 1.9% unsupported facts on a random sample, scored against 46 real questions from the team. We replayed past bids whose outcome was already known. For every new bid, an agent now prepares a bid / no-bid brief and a pack: RFP breakdown, budget and staffing at the firm’s real rates, and interview prep.
- 04
Keep improving
Every go or no-go is recorded with its reason, and outcomes are captured on wins as well as losses, so the system learns what separates a won bid. Since September it has run in the firm’s own SharePoint, with a weekly agent check of the Knowledge Base.
What the client kept
Live bids run through agent-built packs. In one week in late September, the proposal manager opened three new packs and two more colleagues started working with the agents.
Bid know-how that no longer depends on one person.
For the first time, a record of bid decisions and outcomes — the basis for win rate by client and type of work.
About this case:Client name withheld. The $240,000 figure is a discovery estimate, not a measured result. Win rate and time savings have not been measured yet. Discovery in June, implementation from August, live in the client’s SharePoint from September, ongoing support.
Services:Process audit · Implementation
